Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 15+ matches
Los Angeles Galaxy44%
San Jose Earthquakes33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Los Angeles Galaxy creates 19% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Los Angeles Galaxy ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Los Angeles Galaxy at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.54 · 15 matches
San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Los Angeles Galaxy attack 1.88 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76
San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.42 + Los Angeles Galaxy defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Los Angeles Galaxy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Los Angeles Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Real Salt LakeLos Angeles Galaxy
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Orlando City SCSan Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Los Angeles Galaxy host San Jose Earthquakes on Monday, 22 April 2024 at 00:15. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy beat San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 in Major League Soccer on April 22, 2024.
Goals: Gabriel Pec (14'), J. Paintsil (24' pen), M. Yoshida (30'), Rodrigues (32'), Riqui Puig (56'), B. Kikanovic (58'), J. Ebobisse (72' pen).
Los Angeles Galaxy controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 18.
The match was played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.