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Los Angeles Galaxy vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
6/20/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 28Dignity Health Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Los Angeles Galaxy43%
×Draw24%
New York City FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Angeles Galaxy
1.61
New York City FC
1.39

Los Angeles Galaxy creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Los Angeles Galaxy
1.92
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

Los Angeles Galaxy
1.55
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

Los Angeles Galaxy+0.14scores more
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Angeles Galaxy ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Los Angeles Galaxy or draw
67%
Los Angeles Galaxy or New York City FC
76%
Draw or New York City FC
57%

Winning margin

Los Angeles Galaxy wins by 2+
22%
New York City FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Los Angeles Galaxy 1+ goals
80%
Los Angeles Galaxy 2+ goals
48%
Los Angeles Galaxy 3+ goals
22%
New York City FC 1+ goals
75%
New York City FC 2+ goals
40%
New York City FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Los Angeles Galaxy (draw refunded)
56%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Angeles Galaxy at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Angeles Galaxy attack 1.92 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

New York City FC attack 1.23 + Los Angeles Galaxy defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Los Angeles Galaxy scores more
43%
level
24%
New York City FC scores more
33%

Los Angeles Galaxy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Los Angeles Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Los Angeles Galaxy 2 – 0 New York City FC

Los Angeles Galaxy beat New York City FC 2-0 in Major League Soccer on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.