Los Angeles FC vs Toluca — CONCACAF Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Los Angeles FC57%
Toluca21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Los Angeles FC creates 81% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Los Angeles FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Los Angeles FC at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches
Toluca away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Los Angeles FC attack 1.92 + Toluca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86
Toluca attack 1.60 + Los Angeles FC defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Los Angeles FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Los Angeles FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleLos Angeles FC
Tigres UANLToluca
Nashville SC
Cruz Azul
FC Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
Club America
Los Angeles Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
San Diego
Monterrey
Vancouver Whitecaps
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Inter Miami
Sporting San Miguelito
LD Alajuelense
CD Olimpia
Xelajú
CS Cartagines
Forge
Real Espana
Mount Pleasant Academy
Atlético Ottawa
Vancouver FC
Defence Force
Universidad O&MIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Los Angeles FC host Toluca on Thursday, 30 April 2026 at 02:30. The match is part of the CONCACAF Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Los Angeles FC 2 – 1 Toluca
Los Angeles FC beat Toluca 2-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 30, 2026.
Goals: T. Tillman (51'), J. Angulo (73'), Nkosi Tafari (90').
Toluca controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 8.
The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles.