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Lörrach-Brombach vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
CANC
13:00
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
5/9/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lörrach-Brombach31%
×Draw23%
Sandhausen II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lörrach-Brombach
1.44
Sandhausen II
1.77

Sandhausen II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lörrach-Brombach
0.72
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Lörrach-Brombach
2.20
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lörrach-Brombach ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lörrach-Brombach or draw
55%
Lörrach-Brombach or Sandhausen II
77%
Draw or Sandhausen II
69%

Winning margin

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
14%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
76%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
42%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
18%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
83%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
53%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
41%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lörrach-Brombach at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lörrach-Brombach attack 0.72 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lörrach-Brombach scores more
31%
level
23%
Sandhausen II scores more
45%

Sandhausen II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sandhausen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lörrach-Brombach vs Sandhausen II — Match Preview

Lörrach-Brombach face Sandhausen II on May 9, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lörrach-Brombach host Sandhausen II at Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.