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Lörrach-Brombach vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
4/10/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 28Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lörrach-Brombach40%
×Draw22%
Ilshofen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lörrach-Brombach
1.78
Ilshofen
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lörrach-Brombach
0.72
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

Lörrach-Brombach
2.20
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lörrach-Brombach ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lörrach-Brombach or draw
63%
Lörrach-Brombach or Ilshofen
78%
Draw or Ilshofen
60%

Winning margin

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
21%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
83%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
53%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
26%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
82%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
51%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
52%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lörrach-Brombach at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lörrach-Brombach attack 0.72 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lörrach-Brombach scores more
40%
level
22%
Ilshofen scores more
37%

Lörrach-Brombach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lörrach-Brombach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Lörrach-Brombach 0–1 Ilshofen

Ilshofen beat Lörrach-Brombach 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Lörrach-Grütt-Kunstrasen in Lörrach.