Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lörrach-Brombach vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Lörrach-Brombach
Lörrach-Brombach
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
5/22/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 36Grüttpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lörrach-Brombach29%
×Draw23%
Astoria Walldorf II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lörrach-Brombach
1.34
Astoria Walldorf II
1.78

Astoria Walldorf II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lörrach-Brombach
0.72
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

Lörrach-Brombach
2.20
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

Lörrach-Brombach+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lörrach-Brombach ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lörrach-Brombach or draw
52%
Lörrach-Brombach or Astoria Walldorf II
77%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
71%

Winning margin

Lörrach-Brombach wins by 2+
13%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lörrach-Brombach 1+ goals
74%
Lörrach-Brombach 2+ goals
39%
Lörrach-Brombach 3+ goals
15%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
83%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
53%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lörrach-Brombach (draw refunded)
38%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lörrach-Brombach at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lörrach-Brombach attack 0.72 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.34

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Lörrach-Brombach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lörrach-Brombach scores more
29%
level
23%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
48%

Astoria Walldorf II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Lörrach-Brombach 0–3 Astoria Walldorf II

Astoria Walldorf II beat Lörrach-Brombach 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Grüttpark Stadion in Lörrach.