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Loros Universidad vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Loros Universidad
Loros Universidad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
10/5/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico de la UACH (Chihuahua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Loros Universidad39%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Zacatecas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loros Universidad
1.35
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 135 away

creates per match

Loros Universidad
1.17
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Loros Universidad
1.25
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Loros Universidad+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loros Universidad ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Loros Universidad or draw
66%
Loros Universidad or Mineros de Zacatecas
74%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
61%

Winning margin

Loros Universidad wins by 2+
18%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Loros Universidad 1+ goals
74%
Loros Universidad 2+ goals
39%
Loros Universidad 3+ goals
15%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
71%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
36%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)
53%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loros Universidad at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loros Universidad attack 1.17 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Loros Universidad defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Loros Universidad scores more
39%
level
26%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
34%

Loros Universidad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Loros Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Loros Universidad 1–1 Mineros de Zacatecas

Loros Universidad and Mineros de Zacatecas drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UACH (Chihuahua).