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Loros Universidad vs Cimarrones — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Loros Universidad
Loros Universidad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cimarrones
Cimarrones
8/31/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UACH (Chihuahua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Loros Universidad35%
×Draw29%
Cimarrones36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loros Universidad
1.08
Cimarrones
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 95 away

creates per match

Loros Universidad
0.86
Cimarrones
1.08

allows per match

Loros Universidad
1.14
Cimarrones
1.31

finishing

Loros Universidad+0.00on par
Cimarrones+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loros Universidad ↓

Cimarrones →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Loros Universidad or draw
64%
Loros Universidad or Cimarrones
71%
Draw or Cimarrones
65%

Winning margin

Loros Universidad wins by 2+
14%
Cimarrones wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Loros Universidad 1+ goals
66%
Loros Universidad 2+ goals
29%
Loros Universidad 3+ goals
10%
Cimarrones 1+ goals
67%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
30%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Loros Universidad (draw refunded)
49%
Cimarrones (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loros Universidad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Cimarrones away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loros Universidad attack 0.86 + Cimarrones defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cimarrones attack 1.08 + Loros Universidad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Loros Universidad scores more
35%
level
29%
Cimarrones scores more
36%

Cimarrones at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loros Universidad vs Cimarrones

Loros Universidad and Cimarrones drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UACH (Chihuahua).