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Lorient vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Lorient
Lorient
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sochaux
Sochaux
8/16/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir (Lorient)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Lorient50%
×Draw26%
Sochaux24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorient
1.50
Sochaux
0.94

Lorient creates 60% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 91 away

creates per match

Lorient
1.92
Sochaux
1.02

allows per match

Lorient
0.86
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Lorient+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lorient or draw
76%
Lorient or Sochaux
74%
Draw or Sochaux
50%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+
25%
Sochaux wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals
78%
Lorient 2+ goals
44%
Lorient 3+ goals
19%
Sochaux 1+ goals
61%
Sochaux 2+ goals
24%
Sochaux 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)
68%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.92 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sochaux attack 1.02 + Lorient defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lorient scores more
50%
level
26%
Sochaux scores more
24%

Lorient at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Lorient 1–0 Sochaux

Lorient beat Sochaux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir (Lorient) in Lorient.