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Lorient vs Rennes — Ligue 1 2018

Lorient
Lorient
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rennes
Rennes
10/22/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lorient40%
×Draw26%
Rennes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorient
1.44
Rennes
1.30

Lorient creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lorient
1.32
Rennes
1.44

allows per match

Lorient
1.17
Rennes
1.56

finishing

Lorient+0.10scores more
Rennes+0.33scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Rennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lorient or draw
66%
Lorient or Rennes
74%
Draw or Rennes
60%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+
19%
Rennes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals
76%
Lorient 2+ goals
42%
Lorient 3+ goals
18%
Rennes 1+ goals
73%
Rennes 2+ goals
37%
Rennes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)
54%
Rennes (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 26 matches

Rennes away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.32 + Rennes defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rennes attack 1.44 + Lorient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lorient scores more
40%
level
26%
Rennes scores more
34%

Lorient at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorient vs Rennes

Lorient beat Rennes 2-1 in Ligue 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Lorient.