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Lori vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Lori
Lori
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Noah
FC Noah
5/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 1Vanadzor Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lori35%
×Draw26%
FC Noah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lori
1.26
FC Noah
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lori
1.32
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Lori
1.32
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Lori+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lori ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lori or draw
61%
Lori or FC Noah
74%
Draw or FC Noah
65%

Winning margin

Lori wins by 2+
15%
FC Noah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lori 1+ goals
72%
Lori 2+ goals
36%
Lori 3+ goals
13%
FC Noah 1+ goals
74%
FC Noah 2+ goals
39%
FC Noah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lori (draw refunded)
47%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lori at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lori attack 1.32 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Lori defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lori scores more
35%
level
26%
FC Noah scores more
39%

FC Noah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lori 2 – 2 FC Noah

Lori and FC Noah drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Vanadzor Football Academy in Vanadzor.