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FC Noah vs Lori — Premier League 2019

FC Noah
FC Noah
FT
3 – 0
Lori
Lori
5/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Stadion Nairi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Noah62%
×Draw22%
Lori16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Noah
1.85
Lori
0.80

FC Noah creates 131% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 27 away

creates per match

FC Noah
2.04
Lori
0.67

allows per match

FC Noah
0.94
Lori
1.67

finishing

FC Noah+0.00on par
Lori+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Noah ↓

Lori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Noah or draw
84%
FC Noah or Lori
78%
Draw or Lori
38%

Winning margin

FC Noah wins by 2+
37%
Lori wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Noah 1+ goals
84%
FC Noah 2+ goals
55%
FC Noah 3+ goals
28%
Lori 1+ goals
55%
Lori 2+ goals
19%
Lori 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Noah (draw refunded)
80%
Lori (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Noah at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Lori away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Noah attack 2.04 + Lori defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lori attack 0.67 + FC Noah defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Noah scores more
62%
level
22%
Lori scores more
16%

FC Noah at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Noah 3 – 0 Lori

FC Noah beat Lori 3-0 in Premier League on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Nairi in Yerevan.