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Lori vs Alashkert — Premier League 2019

Lori
Lori
AWD
0 – 3
Alashkert
Alashkert
5/23/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lori35%
×Draw26%
Alashkert39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lori
1.30
Alashkert
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 107 away

creates per match

Lori
1.32
Alashkert
1.44

allows per match

Lori
1.32
Alashkert
1.28

finishing

Lori+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lori ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lori or draw
61%
Lori or Alashkert
74%
Draw or Alashkert
65%

Winning margin

Lori wins by 2+
15%
Alashkert wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lori 1+ goals
73%
Lori 2+ goals
37%
Lori 3+ goals
14%
Alashkert 1+ goals
75%
Alashkert 2+ goals
40%
Alashkert 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lori (draw refunded)
48%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lori at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lori attack 1.32 + Alashkert defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alashkert attack 1.44 + Lori defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lori scores more
35%
level
26%
Alashkert scores more
39%

Alashkert at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lori vs Alashkert — Match Preview

Lori face Alashkert on May 23, 2021 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lori host Alashkert at Vanadzor Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.