Lorentzweiler 0–2 Victoria Rosport: Result & Stats

Lorentzweiler

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Rosport

10/6/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundTerrain rue de Hunsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lorentzweiler18%

×Draw17%

Victoria Rosport65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorentzweilerExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.69

Lorentzweiler

1.35

Victoria Rosport

2.69

Victoria Rosport creates 99% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

2.38

3.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lorentzweiler

1.33

Victoria Rosport

2.38

allows per match

Lorentzweiler

3.00

Victoria Rosport

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorentzweiler+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorentzweiler ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Lorentzweiler or draw

35%

Lorentzweiler or Victoria Rosport

83%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

82%

Winning margin

Lorentzweiler wins by 2+

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Lorentzweiler 1+ goals

74%

Lorentzweiler 2+ goals

39%

Lorentzweiler 3+ goals

15%

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

93%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

74%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)

21%

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorentzweiler at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorentzweiler attack 1.33 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Lorentzweiler defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lorentzweiler scores more

18%

level

17%

Victoria Rosport scores more

65%

Victoria Rosport at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff