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Lorentzweiler vs Rodange 91 — Cup 2020

Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Rodange 91
Rodange 91advanced
11/9/2025CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lorentzweiler14%
×Draw17%
Rodange 9170%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorentzweiler
1.11
Rodange 91
2.65

Rodange 91 creates 139% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lorentzweiler
1.33
Rodange 91
2.30

allows per match

Lorentzweiler
3.00
Rodange 91
0.90

finishing

Lorentzweiler+0.00on par
Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorentzweiler ↓

Rodange 91 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lorentzweiler or draw
30%
Lorentzweiler or Rodange 91
83%
Draw or Rodange 91
86%

Winning margin

Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
5%
Rodange 91 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
67%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
30%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
10%
Rodange 91 1+ goals
93%
Rodange 91 2+ goals
74%
Rodange 91 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
17%
Rodange 91 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorentzweiler at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorentzweiler attack 1.33 + Rodange 91 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rodange 91 attack 2.30 + Lorentzweiler defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lorentzweiler scores more
14%
level
17%
Rodange 91 scores more
70%

Rodange 91 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rodange 91 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Lorentzweiler 2–4 Rodange 91

Rodange 91 beat Lorentzweiler 4-2 in Cup on November 9, 2025.