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Lorentzweiler vs Marisca Mersch — Cup 2020

Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler
FT
2 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain rue de Hunsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lorentzweiler23%
×Draw19%
Marisca Mersch59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorentzweiler
1.56
Marisca Mersch
2.55

Marisca Mersch creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lorentzweiler
1.33
Marisca Mersch
2.10

allows per match

Lorentzweiler
3.00
Marisca Mersch
1.80

finishing

Lorentzweiler+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorentzweiler ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Lorentzweiler or draw
41%
Lorentzweiler or Marisca Mersch
81%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
77%

Winning margin

Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
10%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
79%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
46%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
21%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
92%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
72%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
28%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorentzweiler at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorentzweiler attack 1.33 + Marisca Mersch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Marisca Mersch attack 2.10 + Lorentzweiler defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lorentzweiler scores more
23%
level
19%
Marisca Mersch scores more
59%

Marisca Mersch at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marisca Mersch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorentzweiler vs Marisca Mersch

Lorentzweiler beat Marisca Mersch 2-0 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain rue de Hunsdorf in Lorentzweiler.