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Lorca vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca40%
×Draw24%
Plus Ultra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
1.54
Plus Ultra
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
65%
Lorca or Plus Ultra
76%
Draw or Plus Ultra
60%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
20%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
79%
Lorca 2+ goals
45%
Lorca 3+ goals
20%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
76%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
42%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
53%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lorca scores more
40%
level
24%
Plus Ultra scores more
35%

Lorca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca 0–0 Plus Ultra

Lorca and Plus Ultra drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.