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Lorca vs Muleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Muleño
Muleño
12/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca28%
×Draw26%
Muleño47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
1.11
Muleño
1.53

Muleño creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
Muleño
0.99

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
Muleño
1.69

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
Muleño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Muleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
53%
Lorca or Muleño
74%
Draw or Muleño
72%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
11%
Muleño wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
67%
Lorca 2+ goals
30%
Lorca 3+ goals
10%
Muleño 1+ goals
78%
Muleño 2+ goals
45%
Muleño 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
37%
Muleño (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Muleño away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Muleño defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.11

Muleño attack 0.99 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lorca scores more
28%
level
26%
Muleño scores more
47%

Muleño at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Muleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca 1–3 Muleño

Muleño beat Lorca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.