Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lorca vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca29%
×Draw26%
Huércal Overa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
1.10
Huércal Overa
1.43

Huércal Overa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
55%
Lorca or Huércal Overa
74%
Draw or Huércal Overa
71%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
11%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
67%
Lorca 2+ goals
30%
Lorca 3+ goals
10%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
76%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
42%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
39%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.10

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lorca scores more
29%
level
26%
Huércal Overa scores more
45%

Huércal Overa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca vs Huércal Overa

Lorca beat Huércal Overa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.