Lorca 0–1 Deportiva Minera: Result & Stats

Lorca

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportiva Minera

2/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca25%

×Draw25%

Deportiva Minera50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorcaExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Minera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.57

Lorca

1.04

Deportiva Minera

1.57

Deportiva Minera creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

0.53

creates per match

1.08

2.07

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Lorca

0.53

Deportiva Minera

1.08

allows per match

Lorca

2.07

Deportiva Minera

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Deportiva Minera →

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorca or draw

50%

Lorca or Deportiva Minera

75%

Draw or Deportiva Minera

75%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals

65%

Lorca 2+ goals

28%

Lorca 3+ goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals

79%

Deportiva Minera 2+ goals

46%

Deportiva Minera 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)

34%

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lorca scores more

25%

level

25%

Deportiva Minera scores more

50%

Deportiva Minera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff