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Lorca vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca
Lorca
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lorca24%
×Draw25%
Cartagena FC50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca
1.02
Cartagena FC
1.58

Cartagena FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lorca
0.53
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Lorca
2.07
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Lorca+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lorca or draw
50%
Lorca or Cartagena FC
75%
Draw or Cartagena FC
76%

Winning margin

Lorca wins by 2+
9%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lorca 1+ goals
64%
Lorca 2+ goals
27%
Lorca 3+ goals
8%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
79%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
47%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lorca (draw refunded)
33%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca attack 0.53 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Lorca defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lorca scores more
24%
level
25%
Cartagena FC scores more
50%

Cartagena FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca 0–5 Cartagena FC

Cartagena FC beat Lorca 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.