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Lorca FC vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC49%
×Draw26%
Olímpico Totana25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.50
Olímpico Totana
0.99

Lorca FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
75%
Lorca FC or Olímpico Totana
74%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
51%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
25%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
78%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
44%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
19%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
63%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
26%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
66%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lorca FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Olímpico Totana scores more
25%

Lorca FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca FC 2–0 Olímpico Totana

Lorca FC beat Olímpico Totana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.