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Lorca FC vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
CANC
22:00
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 38Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC35%
×Draw29%
Mar Menor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.10
Mar Menor
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
63%
Lorca FC or Mar Menor
71%
Draw or Mar Menor
65%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
14%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
67%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
30%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
10%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
68%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
32%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
49%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lorca FC scores more
35%
level
29%
Mar Menor scores more
37%

Mar Menor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lorca FC face Mar Menor (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 returns with Lorca FC hosting Mar Menor. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lorca FC host Mar Menor at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.