Lorca FC vs Huércal Overa: Preview & Prediction

Lorca FC

CANC

00:00

Huércal Overa

3/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC56%

×Draw24%

Huércal Overa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca FCExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.90

Lorca FC

1.69

Huércal Overa

0.90

Lorca FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

1.71

creates per match

0.79

1.00

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Lorca FC

1.71

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Lorca FC

1.00

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw

80%

Lorca FC or Huércal Overa

76%

Draw or Huércal Overa

44%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+

31%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals

82%

Lorca FC 2+ goals

50%

Lorca FC 3+ goals

24%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

59%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

23%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)

74%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lorca FC scores more

56%

level

24%

Huércal Overa scores more

20%

Lorca FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lorca FC host Huércal Overa

March 22, 2020: Lorca FC take on Huércal Overa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lorca FC host Huércal Overa at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Lorca FC vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Lorca FC host Huércal Overa