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Lorca FC vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Campo De Fútbol Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC51%
×Draw25%
Deportiva Minera24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.64
Deportiva Minera
1.04

Lorca FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
76%
Lorca FC or Deportiva Minera
75%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
49%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
27%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
81%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
49%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
23%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
65%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
28%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
68%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lorca FC scores more
51%
level
25%
Deportiva Minera scores more
24%

Lorca FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca FC vs Deportiva Minera

Lorca FC and Deportiva Minera drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Mundial 82 in Lorca.