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Lorca FC vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC42%
×Draw26%
Cartagena II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.39
Cartagena II
1.17

Lorca FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
68%
Lorca FC or Cartagena II
74%
Draw or Cartagena II
58%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
20%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
75%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
40%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
16%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
69%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
33%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
57%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lorca FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Cartagena II scores more
32%

Lorca FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca FC 2–1 Cartagena II

Lorca FC beat Cartagena II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.