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Lorca FC vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio de Los Tollos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC51%
×Draw25%
Cartagena FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.61
Cartagena FC
1.04

Lorca FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
75%
Lorca FC or Cartagena FC
75%
Draw or Cartagena FC
49%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
27%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
80%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
48%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
22%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
65%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
28%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
67%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lorca FC scores more
51%
level
25%
Cartagena FC scores more
25%

Lorca FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca FC vs Cartagena FC

Lorca FC beat Cartagena FC 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Los Tollos in Lorca.