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Lorca FC vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca FC
Lorca FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lorca FC53%
×Draw25%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca FC
1.58
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.93

Lorca FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

creates per match

Lorca FC
1.71
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
0.85

allows per match

Lorca FC
1.00
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
1.45

finishing

Lorca FC+0.00on par
CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca FC ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lorca FC or draw
78%
Lorca FC or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
75%
Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia
47%

Winning margin

Lorca FC wins by 2+
28%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals
79%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
47%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
21%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals
61%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals
24%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lorca FC (draw refunded)
70%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca FC attack 1.71 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lorca FC scores more
53%
level
25%
CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more
22%

Lorca FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca FC 3–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Lorca FC beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.