Lorca Deportiva 3–1 Unión Molinense: Result & Stats

Lorca Deportiva

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Unión Molinense

3/9/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Lorca Deportiva51%

×Draw26%

Unión Molinense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Lorca Deportiva

1.54

Unión Molinense

0.96

Lorca Deportiva creates 60% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 67 away

2.11

creates per match

1.18

0.75

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

76%

Lorca Deportiva or Unión Molinense

74%

Draw or Unión Molinense

49%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

26%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

79%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

45%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

20%

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

62%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

25%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

68%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

51%

level

26%

Unión Molinense scores more

24%

Lorca Deportiva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Unión Molinense

Lorca Deportiva beat Unión Molinense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.

Lorca Deportiva vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lorca Deportiva vs Unión Molinense