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Lorca Deportiva vs Águilas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Águilas
Águilas
10/15/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Campo De Fútbol Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Lorca Deportiva48%
×Draw27%
Águilas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.40
Águilas
0.93

Lorca Deportiva creates 51% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
Águilas
1.10

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
Águilas
0.69

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
Águilas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Águilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
75%
Lorca Deportiva or Águilas
73%
Draw or Águilas
52%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
23%
Águilas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
75%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
41%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
17%
Águilas 1+ goals
61%
Águilas 2+ goals
24%
Águilas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
66%
Águilas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Águilas away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Águilas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

Águilas attack 1.10 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
48%
level
27%
Águilas scores more
25%

Lorca Deportiva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca Deportiva 1–1 Águilas

Lorca Deportiva and Águilas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Mundial 82 in Lorca.