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Lopburi City vs Pathum Thani University — League Cup 2021

Lopburi City
Lopburi City
FT
3 – 2
Pathum Thani University
Pathum Thani University
9/21/2022League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundLopburi Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lopburi City66%
×Draw18%
Pathum Thani University17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lopburi City
2.58
Pathum Thani University
1.25

Lopburi City creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lopburi City
2.17
Pathum Thani University
1.00

allows per match

Lopburi City
1.50
Pathum Thani University
3.00

finishing

Lopburi City+0.00on par
Pathum Thani University+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lopburi City ↓

Pathum Thani University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lopburi City or draw
83%
Lopburi City or Pathum Thani University
82%
Draw or Pathum Thani University
34%

Winning margin

Lopburi City wins by 2+
44%
Pathum Thani University wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lopburi City 1+ goals
92%
Lopburi City 2+ goals
72%
Lopburi City 3+ goals
47%
Pathum Thani University 1+ goals
71%
Pathum Thani University 2+ goals
36%
Pathum Thani University 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lopburi City (draw refunded)
79%
Pathum Thani University (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lopburi City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Pathum Thani University away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lopburi City attack 2.17 + Pathum Thani University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.58

Pathum Thani University attack 1.00 + Lopburi City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lopburi City scores more
66%
level
18%
Pathum Thani University scores more
17%

Lopburi City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lopburi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lopburi City vs Pathum Thani University

Lopburi City beat Pathum Thani University 3-2 in League Cup on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Lopburi Provincial Central Stadium in Lopburi.