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Lopburi City vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — League Cup 2021

Lopburi City
Lopburi City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FCadvanced
12/28/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lopburi City65%
×Draw19%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lopburi City
2.33
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.08

Lopburi City creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lopburi City
2.17
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.67

allows per match

Lopburi City
1.50
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.50

finishing

Lopburi City+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lopburi City ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lopburi City or draw
84%
Lopburi City or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
81%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
35%

Winning margin

Lopburi City wins by 2+
42%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lopburi City 1+ goals
90%
Lopburi City 2+ goals
67%
Lopburi City 3+ goals
41%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
66%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
29%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lopburi City (draw refunded)
80%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lopburi City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lopburi City attack 2.17 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.67 + Lopburi City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lopburi City scores more
65%
level
19%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
16%

Lopburi City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lopburi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Lopburi City 1–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Lopburi City 2-1 in League Cup on December 28, 2025.