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Lopburi City vs Hua Hin City — League Cup 2021

Lopburi City
Lopburi City
FT
3 – 2
Hua Hin City
Hua Hin City
9/4/2022League CupLeague Cup · 1st Qualifying RoundLopburi Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lopburi City57%
×Draw22%
Hua Hin City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lopburi City
1.92
Hua Hin City
1.08

Lopburi City creates 78% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lopburi City
2.17
Hua Hin City
0.67

allows per match

Lopburi City
1.50
Hua Hin City
1.67

finishing

Lopburi City+0.00on par
Hua Hin City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lopburi City ↓

Hua Hin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lopburi City or draw
79%
Lopburi City or Hua Hin City
78%
Draw or Hua Hin City
43%

Winning margin

Lopburi City wins by 2+
33%
Hua Hin City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lopburi City 1+ goals
85%
Lopburi City 2+ goals
57%
Lopburi City 3+ goals
30%
Hua Hin City 1+ goals
66%
Hua Hin City 2+ goals
29%
Hua Hin City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lopburi City (draw refunded)
73%
Hua Hin City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lopburi City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hua Hin City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lopburi City attack 2.17 + Hua Hin City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hua Hin City attack 0.67 + Lopburi City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lopburi City scores more
57%
level
22%
Hua Hin City scores more
21%

Lopburi City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lopburi City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Lopburi City 3–2 Hua Hin City

Lopburi City beat Hua Hin City 3-2 in League Cup on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Lopburi Provincial Central Stadium in Lopburi.