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LoPa vs Sexypöxyt II — Suomen Cup 2018

LoPa
LoPa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sexypöxyt II
Sexypöxyt II
5/12/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundOjamo TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LoPa40%
×Draw23%
Sexypöxyt II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LoPa
1.67
Sexypöxyt II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

LoPa
2.00
Sexypöxyt II
1.67

allows per match

LoPa
1.50
Sexypöxyt II
1.33

finishing

LoPa+0.00on par
Sexypöxyt II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LoPa ↓

Sexypöxyt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

LoPa or draw
64%
LoPa or Sexypöxyt II
77%
Draw or Sexypöxyt II
60%

Winning margin

LoPa wins by 2+
20%
Sexypöxyt II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

LoPa 1+ goals
81%
LoPa 2+ goals
50%
LoPa 3+ goals
23%
Sexypöxyt II 1+ goals
79%
Sexypöxyt II 2+ goals
47%
Sexypöxyt II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

LoPa (draw refunded)
52%
Sexypöxyt II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LoPa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sexypöxyt II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LoPa attack 2.00 + Sexypöxyt II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sexypöxyt II attack 1.67 + LoPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LoPa scores more
40%
level
23%
Sexypöxyt II scores more
36%

LoPa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LoPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LoPa vs Sexypöxyt II

Sexypöxyt II beat LoPa 1-0 in Suomen Cup on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Ojamo TN in Lohja.