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LoPa vs JäPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

LoPa
LoPa
FT
1 – 2
JäPS II
JäPS II
3/12/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundOjamo TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LoPa25%
×Draw19%
JäPS II55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LoPa
1.63
JäPS II
2.44

JäPS II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

LoPa
2.00
JäPS II
3.38

allows per match

LoPa
1.50
JäPS II
1.25

finishing

LoPa+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LoPa ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

LoPa or draw
45%
LoPa or JäPS II
81%
Draw or JäPS II
75%

Winning margin

LoPa wins by 2+
12%
JäPS II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

LoPa 1+ goals
80%
LoPa 2+ goals
48%
LoPa 3+ goals
22%
JäPS II 1+ goals
91%
JäPS II 2+ goals
70%
JäPS II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

LoPa (draw refunded)
32%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LoPa at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

JäPS II away — creates 3.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LoPa attack 2.00 + JäPS II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

JäPS II attack 3.38 + LoPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LoPa scores more
25%
level
19%
JäPS II scores more
55%

JäPS II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "JäPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LoPa 1 – 2 JäPS II

JäPS II beat LoPa 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Ojamo TN in Lohja.