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Loon-Plage vs Reims — Coupe de France 2018

Loon-Plage
Loon-Plage
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Reims
Reimsadvanced
1/8/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Marcel Rosseel - Terrain 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Loon-Plage11%
×Draw16%
Reims74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loon-Plage
0.88
Reims
2.59

Reims creates 194% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Loon-Plage
0.83
Reims
2.36

allows per match

Loon-Plage
2.83
Reims
0.93

finishing

Loon-Plage+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loon-Plage ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Loon-Plage or draw
26%
Loon-Plage or Reims
84%
Draw or Reims
89%

Winning margin

Loon-Plage wins by 2+
3%
Reims wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Loon-Plage 1+ goals
59%
Loon-Plage 2+ goals
22%
Loon-Plage 3+ goals
6%
Reims 1+ goals
92%
Reims 2+ goals
73%
Reims 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Loon-Plage (draw refunded)
13%
Reims (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loon-Plage at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loon-Plage attack 0.83 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Reims attack 2.36 + Loon-Plage defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Loon-Plage scores more
11%
level
16%
Reims scores more
74%

Reims at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loon-Plage vs Reims

Reims beat Loon-Plage 7-0 in Coupe de France on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Rosseel - Terrain 1 in Loon-Plage.