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Loon-Plage vs Caen — Coupe de France 2018

Loon-Plage
Loon-Plage
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Caen
Caen
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Marcel Rosseel - Terrain 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Loon-Plage13%
×Draw16%
Caen71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loon-Plage
1.03
Caen
2.62

Caen creates 154% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Loon-Plage
0.83
Caen
2.41

allows per match

Loon-Plage
2.83
Caen
1.24

finishing

Loon-Plage+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loon-Plage ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Loon-Plage or draw
29%
Loon-Plage or Caen
84%
Draw or Caen
87%

Winning margin

Loon-Plage wins by 2+
4%
Caen wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Loon-Plage 1+ goals
64%
Loon-Plage 2+ goals
28%
Loon-Plage 3+ goals
9%
Caen 1+ goals
93%
Caen 2+ goals
73%
Caen 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Loon-Plage (draw refunded)
15%
Caen (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loon-Plage at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Caen away — creates 2.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loon-Plage attack 0.83 + Caen defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Caen attack 2.41 + Loon-Plage defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Loon-Plage scores more
13%
level
16%
Caen scores more
71%

Caen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loon-Plage vs Caen

Caen beat Loon-Plage 3-0 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Rosseel - Terrain 1 in Loon-Plage.