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Loo vs Team Helm — Cup 2020

Loo
Loo
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Team Helm
Team Helmadvanced
T. Vaher 69'
Ü. Tohver 41'
R. Püvi 54', 6'
F. Helm 27', 10'
8/7/2024CupCup · Round of 64Wismari staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Loo54%
×Draw17%
Team Helm30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loo
4.13
Team Helm
3.13

Loo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Loo
4.25
Team Helm
3.75

allows per match

Loo
2.50
Team Helm
4.00

finishing

Loo+0.00on par
Team Helm+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

94%Yes
  • Yes94
  • No6

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loo ↓

Team Helm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–25%
4–35%
4–44%

Most likely 3–2 (5%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
92%8%4.5
82%18%

Double chance

Loo or draw
70%
Loo or Team Helm
83%
Draw or Team Helm
46%

Winning margin

Loo wins by 2+
36%
Team Helm wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Loo 1+ goals
98%
Loo 2+ goals
91%
Loo 3+ goals
75%
Team Helm 1+ goals
95%
Team Helm 2+ goals
81%
Team Helm 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Loo (draw refunded)
64%
Team Helm (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
93%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loo at home — creates 4.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Team Helm away — creates 3.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loo attack 4.25 + Team Helm defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.13

Team Helm attack 3.75 + Loo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Loo scores more
54%
level
17%
Team Helm scores more
30%

Loo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Loo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Püvi
10'
F. Helm
27'
F. Helm
41'
Ü. Tohver
54'
R. Püvi
69'
T. Vaher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Loo 2–4 Team Helm

Team Helm beat Loo 4-2 in Cup on August 7, 2024.

Goals: R. Püvi (6', 54'), F. Helm (10', 27'), Ü. Tohver (41'), T. Vaher (69').

The match was played at Wismari staadion in Tallinn.