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Loo vs FC Tallinn — Cup 2020

Loo
Loo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinnadvanced
M. Uusmäe 90'
R. Piip 37'
T. Šišov 72'
N. Brõlin 61'
D. Datov 43'
7/21/2021CupCup · Round of 64Loo kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Loo45%
×Draw19%
FC Tallinn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loo
2.73
FC Tallinn
2.45

Loo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Loo
4.25
FC Tallinn
2.40

allows per match

Loo
2.50
FC Tallinn
1.20

finishing

Loo+0.00on par
FC Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loo ↓

FC Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Loo or draw
64%
Loo or FC Tallinn
81%
Draw or FC Tallinn
55%

Winning margin

Loo wins by 2+
28%
FC Tallinn wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Loo 1+ goals
93%
Loo 2+ goals
75%
Loo 3+ goals
50%
FC Tallinn 1+ goals
91%
FC Tallinn 2+ goals
70%
FC Tallinn 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Loo (draw refunded)
56%
FC Tallinn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loo at home — creates 4.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

FC Tallinn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loo attack 4.25 + FC Tallinn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.73

FC Tallinn attack 2.40 + Loo defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Loo scores more
45%
level
19%
FC Tallinn scores more
36%

Loo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Loo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
R. Piip
43'
D. Datov
61'
N. Brõlin
72'
T. Šišov
90'
M. Uusmäe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Loo 2–3 FC Tallinn

FC Tallinn beat Loo 3-2 in Cup on July 21, 2021.

Goals: R. Piip (37'), D. Datov (43'), N. Brõlin (61'), T. Šišov (72'), M. Uusmäe (90').

The match was played at Loo kunstmuruväljak in Loo.