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Longueau vs Vitré — Coupe de France 2018

Longueau
Longueau
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitré
Vitré
1/6/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade Moulonguet (Amiens)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Longueau27%
×Draw24%
Vitré49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longueau
1.25
Vitré
1.75

Vitré creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Longueau
1.67
Vitré
1.83

allows per match

Longueau
1.67
Vitré
0.83

finishing

Longueau+0.00on par
Vitré+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longueau ↓

Vitré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Longueau or draw
51%
Longueau or Vitré
76%
Draw or Vitré
73%

Winning margin

Longueau wins by 2+
11%
Vitré wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Longueau 1+ goals
71%
Longueau 2+ goals
36%
Longueau 3+ goals
13%
Vitré 1+ goals
83%
Vitré 2+ goals
52%
Vitré 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Longueau (draw refunded)
36%
Vitré (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longueau at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vitré away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longueau attack 1.67 + Vitré defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vitré attack 1.83 + Longueau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Longueau scores more
27%
level
24%
Vitré scores more
49%

Vitré at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vitré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Longueau vs Vitré

Longueau and Vitré drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Moulonguet (Amiens).