Longueau 1–3 Beauvais: Result & Stats

Longueau

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Beauvais

C. Dobelle 66'

E. Rodrigo 77'

G. Doré 29'

I. Haddou 20'

2/7/2021

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Émile Noël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Longueau30%

×Draw20%

Beauvais51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LongueauExpected goals in this matchBeauvais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.42

Longueau

1.83

Beauvais

2.42

Beauvais creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

3.17

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Longueau

1.67

Beauvais

3.17

allows per match

Longueau

1.67

Beauvais

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Longueau+0.00on par

Beauvais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longueau ↓

Beauvais →

0–01%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Longueau or draw

49%

Longueau or Beauvais

80%

Draw or Beauvais

70%

Winning margin

Longueau wins by 2+

15%

Beauvais wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Longueau 1+ goals

84%

Longueau 2+ goals

54%

Longueau 3+ goals

28%

Beauvais 1+ goals

91%

Beauvais 2+ goals

69%

Beauvais 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Longueau (draw refunded)

37%

Beauvais (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Longueau at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Beauvais away — creates 3.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Longueau attack 1.67 + Beauvais defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Beauvais attack 3.17 + Longueau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Longueau scores more

30%

level

20%

Beauvais scores more

51%

Beauvais at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beauvais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

I. Haddou

29'

G. Doré

32'

C. Dobelle← M. Delcuse

58'

E. Rodrigo← M. Mauquit

58'

M. Duhamel← B. Tutu

61'

K. Dervillé← R. Lemaire

66'

77'

78'

80'

87'

Longueau

Beauvais

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Leraillé

32'▲C. Dobelle←▼M. Delcuse

61'▲K. Dervillé←▼R. Lemaire

80'▲G. Finaz←▼G. Tassart

Longueau substitutes

DobelleDervilléFinazCoussartFievet

Manager: S. Dailly

58'▲E. Rodrigo←▼M. Mauquit

58'▲M. Duhamel←▼B. Tutu

78'▲M. Gneba←▼I. Haddou

87'▲A. Paye←▼B. Irie Bi

Beauvais substitutes

RodrigoDuhamelGnebaPayeSintcheu

Coupe de France: Longueau 1–3 Beauvais

Beauvais beat Longueau 3-1 in Coupe de France on February 7, 2021.

Goals: I. Haddou (20'), G. Doré (29'), C. Dobelle (66'), E. Rodrigo (77').

The match was played at Stade Émile Noël in Longueau.

Longueau vs Beauvais — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Longueau 1–3 Beauvais