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Longridge Town vs AFC Fylde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Longridge Town
Longridge Town
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde
Trialist 67', 29' (pen), 4'
T. O'Kane 62'
J. Morris 30'
7/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Recycling Lives Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Longridge Town1%
×Draw5%
AFC Fylde94%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longridge Town
0.42
AFC Fylde
3.98

AFC Fylde creates 848% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Longridge Town
0.33
AFC Fylde
3.75

allows per match

Longridge Town
4.22
AFC Fylde
0.50

finishing

Longridge Town+0.00on par
AFC Fylde+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longridge Town ↓

AFC Fylde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–211%
0–314%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Longridge Town or draw
6%
Longridge Town or AFC Fylde
95%
Draw or AFC Fylde
99%

Winning margin

Longridge Town wins by 2+
0%
AFC Fylde wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

Longridge Town 1+ goals
34%
Longridge Town 2+ goals
7%
Longridge Town 3+ goals
1%
AFC Fylde 1+ goals
98%
AFC Fylde 2+ goals
90%
AFC Fylde 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Longridge Town (draw refunded)
2%
AFC Fylde (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longridge Town at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

AFC Fylde away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longridge Town attack 0.33 + AFC Fylde defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

AFC Fylde attack 3.75 + Longridge Town defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 3.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Longridge Town scores more
1%
level
5%
AFC Fylde scores more
94%

AFC Fylde at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "AFC Fylde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Trialist
29'
TrialistPenalty
30'
J. Morris
62'
T. O'Kane
67'
Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Longridge Town 0–5 AFC Fylde

AFC Fylde beat Longridge Town 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2024.

Goals: Trialist (4', 29' pen, 67'), J. Morris (30'), T. O'Kane (62').

The match was played at The Recycling Lives Ground in Longridge, Lancashire.