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Longford Town vs Cork City — First Division 2019

Longford Town
Longford Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
3/9/2024First DivisionFirst Division · Round 4Bishopsgate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Longford Town28%
×Draw27%
Cork City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Longford Town
1.04
Cork City
1.41

Cork City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 58 away

creates per match

Longford Town
1.33
Cork City
1.59

allows per match

Longford Town
1.23
Cork City
0.74

finishing

Longford Town+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Longford Town ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Longford Town or draw
55%
Longford Town or Cork City
73%
Draw or Cork City
72%

Winning margin

Longford Town wins by 2+
10%
Cork City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Longford Town 1+ goals
65%
Longford Town 2+ goals
28%
Longford Town 3+ goals
9%
Cork City 1+ goals
76%
Cork City 2+ goals
41%
Cork City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Longford Town (draw refunded)
38%
Cork City (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Longford Town at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Longford Town attack 1.33 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cork City attack 1.59 + Longford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Longford Town scores more
28%
level
27%
Cork City scores more
45%

Cork City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Longford Town vs Cork City

Cork City beat Longford Town 2-0 in First Division on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Bishopsgate Stadium in Longford Town.