Cork City 3–2 Longford Town: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Longford Town

8/30/2024

First Division · Round 29Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Cork City56%

×Draw23%

Longford Town21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.98

Cork City

1.76

Longford Town

0.98

Cork City creates 80% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 109 away

1.97

creates per match

1.22

0.75

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cork City

1.97

Longford Town

1.22

allows per match

Cork City

0.75

Longford Town

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

79%

Cork City or Longford Town

77%

Draw or Longford Town

44%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

31%

Longford Town wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

83%

Cork City 2+ goals

52%

Cork City 3+ goals

26%

Longford Town 1+ goals

62%

Longford Town 2+ goals

26%

Longford Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

73%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 1.97 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.76

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Cork City defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cork City scores more

56%

level

23%

Longford Town scores more

21%

Cork City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff