Ballyclare Comrades 2–3 Dergview: Result & Stats

Ballyclare Comrades

FT

2 – 3

Dergview

4/13/2019

League #407 · Relegation Round - 8Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades38%

×Draw22%

Dergview40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballyclare ComradesExpected goals in this matchDergview

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.83

Ballyclare Comrades

1.77

Dergview

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

1.41

creates per match

1.36

2.29

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades

1.41

Dergview

1.36

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades

2.29

Dergview

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Dergview →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw

60%

Ballyclare Comrades or Dergview

78%

Draw or Dergview

62%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

19%

Dergview wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

83%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

53%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

26%

Dergview 1+ goals

84%

Dergview 2+ goals

54%

Dergview 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

48%

Dergview (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Dergview away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.41 + Dergview defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dergview attack 1.36 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

38%

level

22%

Dergview scores more

40%

Dergview at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dergview will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff