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Dergview vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #407 2026

Dergview
Dergview
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
P. Lynch 79' (pen)
C. Donnelly 53'
G. Donnelly 46'
D. Roohi 14'
1/13/2024League #407League #407 · Round 24Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dergview29%
×Draw24%
Ballyclare Comrades47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dergview
1.28
Ballyclare Comrades
1.71

Ballyclare Comrades creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dergview
0.85
Ballyclare Comrades
1.79

allows per match

Dergview
1.62
Ballyclare Comrades
1.71

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dergview or draw
53%
Dergview or Ballyclare Comrades
76%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
71%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+
12%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals
72%
Dergview 2+ goals
37%
Dergview 3+ goals
14%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
82%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
51%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)
38%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.85 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.79 + Dergview defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dergview scores more
29%
level
24%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
47%

Ballyclare Comrades at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ballyclare Comrades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Roohi
46'
G. Donnelly
53'
C. Donnelly
79'
P. LynchPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Dergview 1–3 Ballyclare Comrades

Ballyclare Comrades beat Dergview 3-1 in League #407 on January 13, 2024.

Goals: D. Roohi (14'), G. Donnelly (46'), C. Donnelly (53'), P. Lynch (79' pen).

The match was played at Darragh Park in Castlederg.