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Donegal Celtic vs Queen's University — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
FT
2 – 1
Queen's University
Queen's University
11/11/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 8Donegal Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Donegal Celtic36%
×Draw28%
Queen's University36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donegal Celtic
1.17
Queen's University
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Donegal Celtic
1.00
Queen's University
1.33

allows per match

Donegal Celtic
1.00
Queen's University
1.33

finishing

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par
Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donegal Celtic ↓

Queen's University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Donegal Celtic or draw
64%
Donegal Celtic or Queen's University
72%
Draw or Queen's University
64%

Winning margin

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
15%
Queen's University wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
69%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
33%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
11%
Queen's University 1+ goals
69%
Queen's University 2+ goals
33%
Queen's University 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
50%
Queen's University (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donegal Celtic at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donegal Celtic attack 1.00 + Queen's University defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Queen's University attack 1.33 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Donegal Celtic scores more
36%
level
28%
Queen's University scores more
36%

Donegal Celtic at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Donegal Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donegal Celtic vs Queen's University

Donegal Celtic beat Queen's University 2-1 in Premier Intermediate League on November 11, 2017.

The match was played at Donegal Celtic Park in Belfast.