Istaravshan 3–0 Kuktosh: Result & Stats

Istaravshan

FT

3 – 0

Kuktosh

10/5/2019

Vysshaya Liga · Round 18Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Istaravshan52%

×Draw23%

Kuktosh26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstaravshanExpected goals in this matchKuktosh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

Istaravshan

1.89

Kuktosh

1.27

Istaravshan creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

1.21

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Istaravshan

1.21

Kuktosh

1.17

allows per match

Istaravshan

1.38

Kuktosh

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Kuktosh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw

74%

Istaravshan or Kuktosh

77%

Draw or Kuktosh

48%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+

29%

Kuktosh wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals

85%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

56%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

29%

Kuktosh 1+ goals

72%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

36%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

67%

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.21 + Kuktosh defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kuktosh attack 1.17 + Istaravshan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Istaravshan scores more

52%

level

23%

Kuktosh scores more

26%

Istaravshan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff