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Kuktosh vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Kuktosh
Kuktosh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
Unknown 75'
5/25/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kuktosh39%
×Draw26%
Istaravshan36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuktosh
1.39
Istaravshan
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kuktosh
1.00
Istaravshan
0.97

allows per match

Kuktosh
1.69
Istaravshan
1.78

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw
64%
Kuktosh or Istaravshan
74%
Draw or Istaravshan
61%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+
18%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals
75%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
40%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
16%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
74%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
38%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)
52%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.00 + Istaravshan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Istaravshan attack 0.97 + Kuktosh defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kuktosh scores more
39%
level
26%
Istaravshan scores more
36%

Kuktosh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kuktosh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Kuktosh 0–1 Istaravshan

Istaravshan beat Kuktosh 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 25, 2024.

Goals: ? (75').

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.