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Khujand vs Ravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2015

Khujand
Khujand
FT
2 – 1
Ravshan
Ravshan
10/24/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Khujand45%
×Draw29%
Ravshan26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.25
Ravshan
0.87

Khujand creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 19 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.30
Ravshan
1.11

allows per match

Khujand
0.63
Ravshan
1.21

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
74%
Khujand or Ravshan
71%
Draw or Ravshan
55%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
20%
Ravshan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
71%
Khujand 2+ goals
36%
Khujand 3+ goals
13%
Ravshan 1+ goals
58%
Ravshan 2+ goals
22%
Ravshan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
64%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.30 + Ravshan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ravshan attack 1.11 + Khujand defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khujand scores more
45%
level
29%
Ravshan scores more
26%

Khujand at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khujand 2–1 Ravshan

Khujand beat Ravshan 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on October 24, 2015.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khujand.